Oleh Soskin,
Director of the Institute of Society Transformation
The Ukraine lives in expectation of new Government, which President of the Ukraine V. Yushchenko has entrusted with Timoshenko. All analysts, politicians, express their own thoughts about new Government policy and staff. However, on my opinion, these accessories are situational.
First of all, the general questions for configuration of the new Government should be solved, as exactly: it will be party-political or stay nomenclature-bureaucratic, either as all previous governments. New state management can do pilot project Government of new model on the eve of Parliament election 2006 and introduction of the Political reform.
The Second strategic question connecting with creation of future Government: form it group-coalition, or either as earlier, pay for deputies support determined financial-material preferences.
If analyze the situation with allegation of new given Government from this position we have next situation. The Condition for February 2 2005 winners of election at the head with V. Yushchenko have support of 6 factions, which have anyway declared that they will take part in forming Government. This is "Our Ukraine" - 101 public deputies, faction to Public agrarian party of the Ukraine - 33, faction to Socialist party of the Ukraine - 21, BYUT - 19, group "Will of Folk" (presents the interests A.Kinax) - 14, group "Centre" - 12 public deputies. Totally - 200 deputies. But for passing of the offered candidacies on departmental posts, as is well known, it is necessary to have minimum 226 voices.
For what conditions specified to factions and groups will vote for this Government? Likely, only then, when they get the corresponding to proportional part in the form of posts in it and posts on the other levels of executive authorities - in district and regional state administrations . However 6 factions it is not enough to create the Government majority. Besides, we know that in "Our Ukraine" and the other faction not all with enthusiasm perceive the possibility of the statement Y. Timoshenko on post of the Premier of the Ukraine.
So, possible to expect that at day of the voting on cause of the new Government composition will be tried to realize coordinate thought-out attempt not to allow Y. Timoshenko to take the majority vote in Verhovna Rada. The President will not be able to bring the same candidacy on Premier post twice. So V. Yushchenko come to offer other person.
For guarantee getting through Verhovna Rada Y. Timoshenko should have not 226, but 260-280 voices of public deputies. However, possible clearly speak that against her will vote the factions KPU - 59 deputies, "Ukraines Regions" - 54, SDPU - 26. Totally - 139 public deputies.
Then who else she cans count on? This is faction "Edyna Ukraine" (the leader B. Gubsikiy) - 22 deputies, group "Souz" ( leader deputy Gapochka told that for determined circumstance they ready to support Y. Timoshenko) - 15, as well as "deminiciativy" (one of the leaders which, S. Gavrish, has recently expressed support to “talented representative of national elite Y. Timoshenko”) - 13 deputies. Thereby, Y. Timoshenko for determined circumstance can calculate else on 50 voices in Verhovna Rada.
Understandable, that this is very shaky support. And in addition these groups if they will fall into coalition, will also require the corresponding to quotas in Government. V. Yushchenko and Y. Timoshenko must or pay with them, having given corresponding preferences, or take to itself in coalition. And then she will consist of 9 factions and groups. In this case Y. Timoshenko will have support of 250 public deputies. It seems that about 10-15 not faction deputies also can vote for it.
So, Y. Timoshenko has a serious chances to become Premiere only if will be applying coalition principle of the forming Government. Today neither from V. Yushchenko, nor from Y. Timoshenko we did not hear that exactly such principle prescribed in base of the shaping Government.
The Third principle question for new Government - creating professional command. And here Y. Timoshenko and V. Yushchenko expect the certain threats. If this will be a government of public deputies, then all of these must to resign their own deputy authority, and do this by leaps and bounds or they will be accused, as their predecessors, in double standards. Together with that having returned part of their own deputies to Government, factions turn out to be greatly weakened. After all, in lists of parliamentary party are found people untrained, which come to very short period to try to become the professional public deputies and get necessary skills. If in Government will enter the deputies who lead Verhovna Rada Committees, this will immediately bring about restructuring of Verhovna Rada. We have already seen what problem appeared whereas Verhovna Rada cans leave O. Zinchenko.
So as process of the shaping Government was successful and had a prospect, V. Yushchenko and Y. Timoshenko, which present itself as leaders to new structure, it is necessary to rest in party-political, group-coalition and professional bases. Besides, to Government not reasonable to enter the big amount of public deputies since this will bring about growth of the chaos in Verhovna Rada. The indulgences to positions of the winners in parliament will condition the essential reinforcement to oppositions. In the event of unsuccessful actions of new authorities number of opposition in Verhovna Rada can grow before 230 persons. Then we shall have a Government minority, which will not allow V. Yushchenko and his command effectively realize reforms which they so loudly declaim. |
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