As part of own anti-crysis program, «ÎÁÎÇ.ua» continues to collect useful tips to rulers of the country. Today Director of Society transformation Institute, Professor of National Management Academy Oleg Soskyn shared with recommendations addressed first of all to Yulia Vladimirovna and heads of the National Bank.
«We cannot agree with statements of our authorities that such substantial worsening is caused only by external factors. This is not true. Main reason - internal factors », - said Oleg Soskyn. As approval of these words, he brought an example of Slovakia, which is «very successfully overcoming crisis» and shows that in case of right process of building the domestic economy, external crisis not of a special risk. According to economist, «there are many countries that are sufficiently effective overcoming external crisis».
But the Ukrainian economy developed in a very specific way and it is actually “carnival”. 80% of country’s life and development are factually based on residential debts and on using of this debts, amount of such debts, up to date, amounted 120 billion dollars. This year Ukraine should pay at least 40 billion on account of the debt. But «these money nowhere to take from».
According to Oleg Soskyn in such a situation there are three possible options. First - a complete inaction. Second - «hardening and strengthening role of the country, what is performed today by the government along with the National Bank». But this is not the best option. Expert thinks that it would be better to go the third way - on the road of radical economic transformations, «when you can provide as more financial resources and reserves for “small people” and can transmit as much rights as you can locally.
Where we are leaded by our «kermanichami»? They do not know it by their own. More than that, they do not know what duration of crisis would be. To help them Oleg Soskyn gives expert forecast: «this crisis in the world and in Ukraine will continue, at least three years», because there is a mix of three crisis cycles: «10 years, 30 years and 100 years periods».
«What resources we will use to overcome this crisis?» - Oleg Soskyn asks. «Today, we hear only one thing: we would overcome it through external debts - as it was before. We develop through external debts, use all through external debts and now think that we will be saved by external debts». But this time serious problems with external loans can appear with External. In particular, with second trenches from IMF. Basis for refusal, Oleg Soskyn considers, non-fulfilment the second part of requirements of thematical memorandum - «we do not given money, because we did not told where the first tranche was used». To correct the situation, expert offers Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Stelmah honestly acknowledge their guilt: “yes, we are guilty; money was used not for their purpose”.
Since «banking in Ukraine actually developing», Oleg Soskyn offers to sell unprofitable commercial banks, and as faster as it possible. «National Bank should immediately set on sale Ukrainian banks and sell them to Norwegians, Finland, Swiss, Danes, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg – to anyone who will buy. Because there is no money in government to buy them».
«And in any case authorities of National Bank should be replaced. Immediately. Stelmach and others should leave. We must form a crisis management team. Today’s authorities of National Bank cannot exist in conditions of crisis», - said the expert.
Today’s authorities of National Bank charging politicians in «slacking situation». Politicians not guilty instead of National Bank and Government. In particular, in the new fall of hryvna, that can be seen starting from 20th February, because the National Bank increases amount of money in use, one more time. If the Stabilization Course in January was caused by removing of nearly 5 billion HRN, in February «National Bank, along with the government, again, began to make deep emission», which «omitted» hryvnya.
They can say: «we do not print additional money ». Maybe you do not print money, but in February you’ve lost another 2 billion gold stocks of National Bank. Plus, there was fall of GDP, at least at 20%. As result, gold stocks has decreased, your GDP fell down. What you should have done at this time? Remove hryvnevuyu lot (cash and non-cash), because you have these two position decreased. But they were not removed, they even were increased », - explained the situation to “gifted” representatives of National Bank Oleg Soskyn. Due to such actions of «experts» of National Bank, «we cost two times less, on the world market, than in September 2008».
As one of extreme actions Mayor Economist proposes to revise the budget and decrease it, at least, 70 billion USD - «otherwise we can not calm down financial and economic situation». But Oleg Soskyn afraid that Timoshenko wont do that, because «she is – social-populists, sotsyal-revolyutsyoner. Sotsyal-revolyutsyoner doesn’t pay attention on money, financial and economic laws.
Expert offers decrease financial input in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the GPU, the SBU, the Ministry of Finance (for the content of which in the budget allocated 99 billion USD), the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Ministry of Science and Education and other government structures.
To ensure the content budget Oleg Soskyn offers «introduce state monopoly on alchoholical drinks, tobacco, casinos, strip-bars and other similar things». In such case «we can collect, at least 15 billion USD a month. This is almost monthly income part of budget ».
«Situation becomes critical so the traditional methods do not helps in finding way out of it», - warns Oleg Soskyn.
After announcement of his proposals Oleg Soskyn replied to questions from readers of «Browser». One of them was about unreasonable increasing prices for drugs. «Yes, this is Corruption. This total Corruption of all. Not only the Antimonopoly Committee – it is derivative. It is one of the elements of chain. Ministry of Economics, local government officials, those who sit in customs, in OBOP, the police, the prosecutor's office. It is a huge crowd of bribers».
At start Economist offers to watch all links of mediators, through which drugs send to pharmacies – to find out with great pressure, at which stage the price is growing. Where sits speculator who takes bribes. Go through this link». «Next Ministry of Economics have to collect our pharmacists and talk about possibility of producing these drugs in our country». By Oleg Soskyna estimates, more-less grounded growth of prices can be considered at 10-15%, «but not at 300%, not 400%, as today».
Resolving of this problem globally consists in reforming the system of taxation, that «destroys the link of mediators», and reform of local government, «when the people themselves, in the field, could influence this phenomenon». A top dreams - «remove power of clan-corporate group, which have formed their so-called politically syndicates».
In conclusion, Oleg Soskyn recalled the words of the great Chekhov, who advised daily to remove from you a drop of a slave. Expert and citizen Oleg Soskyn said: first, that you need is to solve for yourselves: I will not be a slave. «When you agree not to be a slave, when you refuse to be fertilizer for “bandokratyy”, this is already your civilian concessions». The second step to freedom – search of same minded which should unite in public movement. These movements should require very simple things: first - change the electoral law and elections. All countries overcoming from crisis in such way. Otherwise - revolution. Otherwise it would be bloody bath ».
«If authorities do not hear us, we should unite in publical movements, take active position». At start, you can find out addresses of banks managers, senior management, learn, what their business, to hang leaflets with angry text, make mass meetings around such building. «But we should not fight club, but with brain, and find those people that can help to organize intellectual-psychological resistance to bands, which has taken today’s Ukraine».
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